Wednesday, February 06, 2008

VIX was up to a very high 28.97. Nervousness is sky-high

It looks increasingly like the presidential race will be McCain vs. the Clintons -- or possibly vs. Obama. The significant trend -- Dems turned out in far greater numbers than did the Republicans. Meaning -- a significant number of Republicans have "had it" with the Bush administration and all it stands for. The next US President will either be Hillary or Obama.

S&P is down 9% for the year, so far this has been the worst start in the history of the S&P. What does this say for the entire year 2008? I don't think it says anything, but I do know this -- I'm more interested in how this year ends than how it begins!

Year to date: S&P down 8.9%, Dow down 7.5%, Transports up 2.2%, Utilities down 6.2%, NASDAQ down 12.9%, Russell 2000 down 8.4%, Wilshire 5000 down 8.6%.

Preferred position -- Cash (T-bills) and gold (mostly the metal).

Yesterday was a 90% down-day, meaning that we saw panic-selling. Did that clean out most of the sellers or is there still a lot more stock for sale?

The VIX was up .73 to a very high 28.97. Nervousness is sky-high.

Yesterday was a 90% down-day -- and normally after a 90% down-day there is usually a recovery-rally lasting a few days and sometimes a bit more. Therefore, today's action was not good at all, market might have ("should have") rallied but it did not. Ah well, we take what the market gives us, and the market gave us very little today.


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