Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Withdrawn listings: Contra Costa/Alameda

The number of listings withdrawn from the market continued to move higher. 5,080 units of listings were taken off the market in the month of August. This is the highest level I've seen since I've started tracking this statistics. The interesting question is what do these sellers do after they withdrew from the market.


Blogger hemorrhoidforhousing said...

They are going to sit on the houses and hold out for the return of the stupid buyers to the market. They have this dillusional view of housing as an investment instead of a roof, stove, toilet and bed. They have to wait until someone as stupid as they are comes along wanting to give them undeserved profit.

Houses are consumable assets requiring constant care and isn't a 401k or precious metal

11:26 AM  
Blogger Meme chose said...

We've been wondering that about the people next door. The separated and moved out, so they have every reason to sell. The consequences of hanging on may be tragic.

From our own point of view, we may move in a year or so, but we reckon that the main impact of a sharp price drop on us would be (a) lower commissions if we sell here and buy somewhere else, and (b) lower capital gains taxes if after selling here we decide to sit out a multi-year price decline, as we did so successfully between 1991 and 1995.

11:49 AM  
Blogger seamus said...

Yup. The recent buyers (whether they intended to flip, got talked into a killer mortgage, or just want to move for another reason) are going to wait to see if they get a price recovery. If they bought in the last year with an ARM and a tiny down payment, they may already be underwater after the 6% commission. I hope these people are religious, because all they have are prayers.

The more long-term owners who are looking to move up or move out of the area may have just decided that they don't have to move. Or I bet many of them are just deciding that they had better put in that granite countertop or skylight to improve the property. With inventory up, you gotta differentiate.

I was just in Minneapolis on Tuesday, and there are homes for sale on every block in the nicer residential neighborhoods. It's highly seasonal there for obvious reasons, so inventory is extraordinarily high given that school started this week. A renter friend of mine said a lovely, 4BR 3BA house down the street from him listed at $800k and two months later sold for under $600k, a more than 25% reduction. That's what happens when you *don't* withdraw your property. Sellers have a very tough road ahead.

11:47 AM  

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