Friday, September 01, 2006

Were in the bad part of the year


An inverted yield curve is supposed to be a harbinger of recession. Well, the yield on the 10 year T-note is now 4.72% while the yield on the shorter 91 day Treasury bill is 4.90% with the shorter maturity yielding more than the longer maturity. That's an inversion, and classically the longer the inversion lasts, the higher the odds for a coming recession.

At the same time, the so-called leading indicators hit their high in January, and they've been dropping ever since. Like the inverted yield, the leading indicators are also providing a forecast of declining business.

Seasonally, we're in the "bad" part of the year, which is the May to October period, when it often pays to be out of the market. On top of this we're in the negative part of the Presidential Cycle, which usually sees stocks down for the year.

Finally, stocks are overvalued in that the S&P is selling at over 17 times earnings while offering a paultry 1.9% dividend yield.

There are times when our main concern should be simply be -- to avoid losing money.

1 Comments:

Blogger Rob said...

Lehman brothers research showed an inversion between 10yr and 3mo bonds has forecast a recession 75% of the time. I'm not betting against those numbers and am all cash right now. Now I hear stories of Intel laying off a few thousand (likely quite a few local heads will roll). And other companies will follow as the flood of 'monopoly money' from HELOCs dries up, resulting in decreased spending, which forces more layoffs due to weak sales. This party is just getting started. Maybe I'll be finally be able to afford a home in Sunnyvale...

Rob

8:31 PM  

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