Monday, August 06, 2007

Mortgage resets: the worst is yet to come


It will take longer than you might think for that negative influence of mortgage resets to decrease.
Let's take a look at the following table. This shows the amount of adjustable rate mortgages that reset each month for the first half of this year and will reset for the next 18 months.
Note that these reset numbers are a driving factor in the increasing rise in foreclosures. Pay attention to the numbers I highlight in red for January through June of 2008. The largest portion of mortgage resets is not until next year.

"We have just seen $197 billion of mortgage resets so far this year. That is less than we will see in two months (February and March) of next year.
The first six months of next year will see more than the total for 2007 or $521 billion. This suggests to me that the number of foreclosures is due to rise dramatically from the already high current levels, putting more homes into a weak housing environment."
The statistics are out, the bad news and ominous possibilities are openly discussed. The stock market is now in the process of measuring and discounting the entire housing and subprime process, and this could drive the market lower. In fact, it would not surprise me to see the stock market decline irregularly into the October period (that's just a guess, not a prediction). From: DowTheory

2 Comments:

Anonymous gfw said...

The Times ran a similar graphic several days ago, and reached similar conclusions that the worst was yet to come.

11:38 AM  
Blogger South Florida Housing Bubble said...

Good stuff. Where did you get the data for your chart? I'd like to include it on my blog as well.

Thanks.

SFHB

9:55 AM  

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